Dubai luxury property prices set to rise next year as $10m home sales surge 54% in Q3

Dubai luxury property prices will continue to rise next year amid growing demand, a new report has found, after the value of sales of homes worth more than $10 million jumped 54 percent annually in the third quarter.

Prime home prices are set to increase 3 percent next year, “underpinned by continued robust international HNWI [high net-worth individuals] demand for premium homes, the continued inflows of global wealth (and the global wealthy), and a deepening pool of resident investors,” consultancy Knight Frank said in its latest quarterly review of Dubai’s property market on Monday.

Dubai remained the “world’s busiest $10 million+ market” globally in the third quarter, recording 103 deals, up 24 percent annually.

The emirate also recorded 17 transactions for homes priced over $25 million during the three-month period, more than twice the number recorded a year earlier, the report said.

The aggregate transaction value topped $2 billion in the three months to the end of September, a 54 percent annual increase, with the average value of ultra-luxury homes standing at $19.4 million.

A seven-bedroom mansion in Asora Bay by Meraas in the La Mer community, which sold for Dh350 million ($95.3 million), was the highest-priced property during the period.

The quarterly data is a “stark indication of how fast prices are rising in this exclusive segment of the market,” said Will McKintosh, Knight Frank Middle East's regional partner for residential sales in the UAE.

“Dubai’s luxury market has cemented its status as a safe haven for international and local luxury buyers, and it looks set to be another record-breaking year for the $10 million+ homes market, following the 435 deals registered during 2024,” he added.

The UAE is expected to attract a record 9,800 relocating millionaires this year, drawn by regulatory reforms and a tax-free lifestyle, a report by Henley & Partners and wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth found. In 2024, Dubai had an estimated 81,200 millionaires and 20 billionaires.

“High-net-worth individuals have firmly anchored demand for luxury and super-prime assets, while a maturing base of resident end users has provided stability across the mainstream sector,” Mr. McKintosh said.

Changing pace

Average values in Dubai's residential property market rose by 2.5 percent during the third quarter, extending an “unbroken run” of quarterly growth that began in late 2020, Knight Frank said. Values now are 10 percent higher than this time last year.

The third-quarter number of 56,854 home sales valued at Dh117 billion has also pushed the total for the first nine months to more than 148,000 sales valued at Dh401.7 billion ($109.3).

“This extraordinary level of activity underscores Dubai’s growing appeal among both domestic and international investors and purchasers,” said Faisal Durrani, partner and head of research for the MENA region at Knight Frank.

However, as with any cycle, “we are starting to see a slowing in the rate of quarterly rises.”

Quarterly rises averaged 2.02 percent in 2021, 2.22 percent in 2022, and 4.34 percent in both 2023 and 2024 and eased to 3.2 percent between the first and third quarters of this year, Knight Frank data showed.

The property market in Dubai has benefitted from government initiatives such as residency permits for retired and remote workers, expansion of the 10-year golden visa program, and overall growth in the UAE’s economy on diversification efforts.

In July, the government launched a new scheme to help Emiratis and UAE residents who do not own any freehold residential property in the emirate get on the property ladder.

Looking ahead, “although the rate of house price growth may be demonstrating signs of slowing, crucially it remains positive”, said Mr Durrani.

“The growth in the mainstream market is likely to average around 1 percent by the time we get to the end of December 2026.”